What this page covers
Government debt and the cost of servicing it are the numbers rating agencies and bond investors watch most closely. Debt service is now among the largest single items in the budget.
| Year | Gross debt to GDP | Budget deficit to GDP | Debt service to revenue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026/27 | About 76% | About 4.4% | About 22% |
| 2025/26 | About 76% | About 4.7% | About 22% |
| 2024/25 | About 74% | About 4.5% | About 21% |
| 2023/24 | About 73% | About 4.6% | About 20% |
| 2020/21 | About 69% | About 10.0% | About 18% |
| 2015/16 | About 47% | About 3.7% | About 11% |
| 2010/11 | About 34% | About 4.6% | About 8% |
| 2008/09 | About 26% | About 0.5% | About 7% |
| Item | Approximate share of spending |
|---|---|
| Debt service costs | About 21% |
| Learning and culture | About 20% |
| Social development | About 16% |
| Health | About 12% |
| Community development | About 11% |
| Peace and security | About 10% |
| Economic development | About 10% |
| Channel | Effect |
|---|---|
| Bond yields | A worsening trajectory raises the long end first |
| The rand | Fiscal news moves it faster than growth news |
| Ratings | Debt to GDP is the headline metric agencies cite |
| Bank funding | Banks hold government paper, so their costs follow |
| Equities | Domestic earners suffer, rand hedges benefit |
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Every table on this page as a spreadsheet, with the source and the date it was checked in the header rows.
⬇ Download CSVHow these figures work
The figures on this page come from the body that publishes them and change on a schedule rather than continuously, which is what makes them worth keeping in one place. Debt service costs consuming more than a fifth of revenue is the figure that worries analysts most. Every rand spent on interest is a rand not available for anything else.
The debt to GDP ratio is often quoted on different bases. Gross loan debt, net debt and consolidated debt all differ, so compare like with like.
★ What this means in practice
The Medium Term Budget Policy Statement in late October is where the trajectory is revised between budgets, and it moves bonds more often than the February budget does.
✕ Common mistakes
- Debt service costs consuming more than a fifth of revenue is the figure . Debt service costs consuming more than a fifth of revenue is the figure that worries analysts most. Every rand spent on interest is a rand not available for anything else.
- The debt to GDP ratio is often quoted on different bases. The debt to GDP ratio is often quoted on different bases. Gross loan debt, net debt and consolidated debt all differ, so compare like with like.
- The Medium Term Budget Policy Statement in late October is where the tra. The Medium Term Budget Policy Statement in late October is where the trajectory is revised between budgets, and it moves bonds more often than the February budget does.
- Taking a figure without its date. A number from a reference page is only as good as when it was last checked, which is why the date sits at the top of this one.
Notes on reading these figures
- Debt service costs consuming more than a fifth of revenue is the figure that worries analysts most. Every rand spent on interest is a rand not available for anything else.
- The debt to GDP ratio is often quoted on different bases. Gross loan debt, net debt and consolidated debt all differ, so compare like with like.
- The Medium Term Budget Policy Statement in late October is where the trajectory is revised between budgets, and it moves bonds more often than the February budget does.
To put these figures to work, The South African Bond Yields runs the arithmetic on your own numbers; Credit Ratings History covers the same ground in ordinary language; GDP Growth History goes into the detail this table only summarises; Rand Exchange Rate History is the related figure worth reading beside it; and Bonds and the rand covers what this page leaves out.
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Terms used on this page
Frequently asked questions
How high is government debt?
About 76% of GDP on a gross loan debt basis, up from under 30% before the financial crisis.
Why do debt service costs matter?
They consume more than a fifth of revenue, and every rand of interest is a rand unavailable for anything else.
What is the primary balance?
The deficit before interest payments. A primary surplus is what stabilises the debt ratio.
When is the trajectory revised?
At the Medium Term Budget Policy Statement in late October, which often moves bonds more than the February budget.
Which debt measure should I use?
Compare like with like. Gross loan debt, net debt and consolidated debt all differ.
How does this affect a trader?
Through the long bond yield first, then the rand, and then the equity split between domestic earners and rand hedges.