What this page covers
A sovereign rating sets the floor for what every South African borrower pays. The country lost investment grade across all three agencies between 2017 and 2020, and the path back is measured in years.
| Year | S&P | Moody's | Fitch | Event |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | BB | Ba2 | BB | Outlooks improved on fiscal consolidation |
| 2025 | BB- | Ba2 | BB- | S&P upgraded the outlook |
| 2024 | BB- | Ba2 | BB- | Stable after the election |
| 2023 | BB- | Ba2 | BB- | Held through the load shedding crisis |
| 2022 | BB- | Ba2 | BB- | Outlook raised to positive |
| 2021 | BB- | Ba2 | BB- | Further downgrades |
| 2020 | BB- | Ba1 | BB | Moody's cut to junk in March |
| 2019 | BB | Baa3 | BB+ | Moody's the last at investment grade |
| 2017 | BB+ | Baa3 | BB+ | S&P and Fitch cut to junk |
| 2014 | BBB- | Baa2 | BBB | First of the downgrade cycle |
| 2012 | BBB | Baa1 | BBB | Marikana and a downgrade |
| 2009 | BBB+ | A3 | BBB+ | Held through the financial crisis |
| 2005 | BBB+ | Baa1 | BBB+ | The upgrade cycle peak |
| 2000 | BBB- | Baa3 | BBB- | Investment grade achieved |
| S&P and Fitch | Moody's | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| BBB- and above | Baa3 and above | Investment grade |
| BB+ | Ba1 | One notch below investment grade |
| BB | Ba2 | Two notches below |
| BB- | Ba3 | Three notches below |
| B and below | B and below | Highly speculative |
| Effect | Speed | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Bond yields rise | Immediate | The cost of government borrowing |
| The rand weakens | Immediate | Often priced in beforehand |
| Index exclusion | On the next rebalance | Forced selling by index funds |
| Bank funding costs rise | Weeks | Banks cannot rate above the sovereign |
| Corporate borrowing costs rise | Months | The sovereign is the floor |
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Every table on this page as a spreadsheet, with the source and the date it was checked in the header rows.
⬇ Download CSVHow these figures work
The figures on this page come from the body that publishes them and change on a schedule rather than continuously, which is what makes them worth keeping in one place. The exit from the World Government Bond Index in 2020, after the Moody's downgrade, forced selling by funds that could only hold investment grade paper. That is usually the largest single market effect of a downgrade.
A rating agency rarely surprises. The outlook change that precedes a move is the signal, and the move itself is often already in the price.
★ What this means in practice
Local currency ratings are usually one notch above foreign currency, because a government can print its own currency.
✕ Common mistakes
- The exit from the World Government Bond Index in 2020, after the Moody's. The exit from the World Government Bond Index in 2020, after the Moody's downgrade, forced selling by funds that could only hold investment grade paper. That is usually the largest single market effect of a downgrade.
- A rating agency rarely surprises. A rating agency rarely surprises. The outlook change that precedes a move is the signal, and the move itself is often already in the price.
- Local currency ratings are usually one notch above foreign currency, bec. Local currency ratings are usually one notch above foreign currency, because a government can print its own currency.
- Taking a figure without its date. A number from a reference page is only as good as when it was last checked, which is why the date sits at the top of this one.
Notes on reading these figures
- The exit from the World Government Bond Index in 2020, after the Moody's downgrade, forced selling by funds that could only hold investment grade paper. That is usually the largest single market effect of a downgrade.
- A rating agency rarely surprises. The outlook change that precedes a move is the signal, and the move itself is often already in the price.
- Local currency ratings are usually one notch above foreign currency, because a government can print its own currency.
To put these figures to work, The South African Bond Yields runs the arithmetic on your own numbers; South African Government Debt covers the same ground in ordinary language; Rand Exchange Rate History goes into the detail this table only summarises; How the credit rating affects the currency is the related figure worth reading beside it; and GDP Growth History covers what this page leaves out.
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Terms used on this page
Frequently asked questions
Is South Africa investment grade?
No. All three major agencies rate it below investment grade, a position reached between 2017 and 2020.
What was the effect of losing investment grade?
Exit from the World Government Bond Index forced selling by funds that could only hold investment grade paper, which is usually the largest single market effect.
Which agency cut last?
Moody's, in March 2020. S&P and Fitch had both cut to junk in 2017.
Does a downgrade move the rand?
Usually less than expected, because the outlook change that precedes it is the real signal and the move is often priced in.
What does the outlook mean?
The agency's view on the direction of its next move, which is a better forward indicator than the rating itself.
Can a bank rate above the sovereign?
Very rarely. The sovereign rating is effectively a ceiling for institutions in that country.