i What this calculator does
This calculator works out the interest rate differential between two currencies, the gap between their respective central bank rates that underpins every carry trade and directly influences your broker's swap fees.
Enter the interest rate for each currency in the pair, and the calculator returns the differential and an estimated annual carry return.
This calculator is for educational purposes only and uses simple annualised approximations. Actual swap fees vary by broker and don't reflect this figure exactly.
Frequently asked questions
What does a positive interest rate differential actually mean?
A positive differential means the currency you're holding pays a higher interest rate than the one you're funding the position with, this is the foundation of a carry trade, potentially earning you the difference as an ongoing return, in addition to any price appreciation.
Does a wide differential automatically mean a profitable carry trade?
Not automatically, currency price movements can easily overwhelm the interest differential, particularly during periods of volatility or risk-off sentiment, when carry trades are typically unwound quickly. The differential is one input, not a standalone trading signal.
How does this connect to the swap or rollover fee I see on my platform?
Your broker's swap rate for holding a position overnight is directly derived from the interest rate differential between the two currencies, adjusted for the broker's own markup. A positive differential in your favour often (though not always) means you receive a swap credit rather than paying a fee.
Which interest rates should I actually use for this calculation?
Use each country's current central bank policy rate, for South Africa, the SARB repo rate, for other countries, their equivalent benchmark rate. These rates change periodically following central bank decisions, so verify you're using the current figure.
Does the interest rate differential change frequently?
Yes, whenever either country's central bank changes its policy rate, the differential shifts immediately, worth checking current rates periodically rather than assuming a figure calculated weeks or months ago still applies.
Is a large positive differential always attractive for a carry trade?
Not automatically, a large differential can also signal one currency is under significant stress or facing high inflation, both of which can be reflected in its elevated interest rate, worth considering the broader context, not just the number itself.
How does this relate to what I see labelled as 'swap' on my trading platform?
Your broker's swap rate is derived from this underlying interest rate differential, adjusted for their own markup and specific calculation method, this calculator gives you the theoretical base figure your actual swap rate is built from.
Do all currency pairs have a meaningful interest rate differential to trade?
No, some major currency pairs currently have relatively similar rates between the two countries, producing a small or negligible differential, carry trade strategies tend to focus on pairs with genuinely wide, persistent differentials.
Can the interest rate differential turn negative unexpectedly?
Yes, if the base currency's central bank cuts rates while the quote currency's stays steady or rises, a previously positive differential can turn negative, meaning a position that once earned carry could start costing it instead.
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