i What this calculator does
Quick answer: Most traders fail a prop firm challenge on the maximum loss limit, not the profit target, and the risk per trade decides it more than the win rate. With the default inputs the calculator returns chance of getting funded: 50.7%.
A prop firm challenge is a bet with fixed rules: reach a profit target before you hit a daily loss limit or a maximum loss limit, sometimes inside a time limit, and usually twice. Whether you pass is a probability, and it can be worked out. This calculator runs thousands of simulated attempts of your own strategy, trade by trade and day by day, against the rules you enter, and reports how many reach a funded account, which rule ends the ones that fail, how long the passes take, and what the evaluation fee really costs per funded account.
It then repeats the simulation at seven risk levels, from 0.25% to 3% per trade, because that is the one setting you control on the day. The prop firm rule calculator converts the same limits into rand amounts for an account in progress; this one tells you whether to start.
This calculator is for educational purposes only. Results are estimates and may vary depending on market conditions, spreads, commissions, platform settings, and exchange rates. It should not be considered financial advice.
Common results
What the calculator returns as the risk per trade changes, with every other input at its default (rule preset Two-step: 10% then 5%, 5% daily, 10% max, challenge account size 100000, win rate 42, reward to risk 1.5, trades per day 2, phase 1 profit target 10, phase 2 profit target 5, daily loss limit 5).
| Risk per trade | Chance of getting funded | Most common way to fail | Median trading days to funded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25% | 31.6% | Time limit | 256 |
| 0.5% | 59.9% | Maximum loss limit | 136 |
| 1% | 50.7% | Maximum loss limit | 40 |
| 1.5% | 45.1% | Maximum loss limit | 22 |
| 2% | 41.1% | Maximum loss limit | 13 |
| 3% | 13.2% | Daily loss limit | 8 |
Figures used in this calculator
The South African constants this calculator relies on, with the page that holds the current value and the date it was last verified.
- Prop firm payouts: Taxed by SARS as income, not as capital gains. Source: Prop Firm Payouts Are Taxable in SA (verified 19 July 2026).
Why the risk per trade matters more than the win rate
A 10% target with a 10% maximum loss is a race between two walls the same distance away. With a small positive edge, the side you hit first is close to a coin toss at high risk, and tilts towards the target only when each trade is small enough for the edge to show over many trades. Risk too little and the time limit, or your patience, ends the attempt; risk too much and two or three losing days end it. The sweep table shows where that balance sits for your numbers, and it usually sits between 0.5% and 1%, well below what most traders use when a challenge clock is running.
What the simulation assumes
Each trade wins with your win rate and pays your reward to risk, independently of the trade before it, at a fixed percentage of the starting balance, which is how most firms size limits. The daily limit is checked against the start-of-day balance after every trade, the maximum limit against the starting balance or the high-water mark, and an attempt passes once the target is reached and the minimum days are traded. Real trading has losing streaks that cluster, slippage on stops and news gaps, so treat the pass rate as an upper bound. A strategy with a negative edge can still pass on luck, which is why the calculator reports the edge per trade next to the pass rate.
How to use the result
If the pass rate is below about 20%, the fee is buying a lottery ticket: the expected cost per funded account is the fee divided by the pass rate, often several times the headline price. Improve the edge on a demo or a small live account first. If the pass rate is reasonable, use the best risk level from the sweep, cut the trades per day if the daily limit is a common failure, and check how SARS taxes the payouts in how prop firm payouts are taxed before the first one arrives.
Spotted an outdated figure? If a rate, limit or formula in this calculator no longer matches its source, email us the page and the source. A material correction is dated on the Updates Log.
Frequently asked questions
What is a realistic pass rate for a prop firm challenge?
Firms rarely publish it, but industry estimates put first-attempt pass rates well under 20%. The calculator shows why: with a small edge and 1% to 2% risk per trade, most simulated attempts hit the maximum loss before the target.
What risk per trade passes a challenge most often?
For most strategies with a modest edge, between 0.5% and 1% of the starting balance. Lower risk takes much longer and can run into a time limit; higher risk lets a normal losing streak reach the loss limit. The sweep table finds the level for your numbers.
Is a trailing drawdown harder than a static one?
Yes. A trailing limit follows your highest balance, so profits you give back count against you, and the room you have never grows beyond the limit until the floor reaches the starting balance. The same strategy passes noticeably less often under a trailing rule.
Does a two-step challenge halve my chances?
Roughly it multiplies them: the chance of passing phase 1 times the chance of passing phase 2. Phase 2 usually has a lower target, so it is easier than phase 1, but a 50% chance at each step is a 25% chance of getting funded.
Why does the calculator say my challenge has negative expected value?
Because the fee is paid on every attempt and the payout only on funded ones. If the pass rate times the average first payout is smaller than the fee, each attempt loses money on average, even if some traders pass.
Are prop firm payouts taxed in South Africa?
Yes. SARS treats them as income, usually as trading or service income at your marginal rate, not as capital gains. Keep the fee receipts, because the fees are an expense against that income.
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